Patrick Mahomes Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Rushing TD

Arizona Cardinals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+436/-994).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -773 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -994.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 64.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 65.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to be a much bigger part of his offense's run game near the goal line this week (17.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (1.6% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-least run-oriented team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 35.8% red zone run rate.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 3rd-least TDs in football (0.59 per game) against the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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