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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 1

Arizona Cardinals vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+436/-994).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -773 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -994.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chiefs are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 64.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 65.5 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to be a much bigger part of his offense's run game near the goal line this week (17.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (1.6% in games he has played).

The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-least run-oriented team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 35.8% red zone run rate.

Opposing offenses have rushed for the 3rd-least TDs in football (0.59 per game) against the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season.

The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

The Kansas City Chiefs have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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