Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

reorder

We’re hiring: Junior AI Product & Automation Engineer — Freelance → Learn More

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 224.5 (-108/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 249.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 224.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Patrick Mahomes is positioned as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 258.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.
Since the start of last season, the anemic Indianapolis Colts defense has given up a whopping 255.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing QBs: the most in the league.
Since the start of last season, the porous Indianapolis Colts defense has been gouged for the 3rd-most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing squads: a whopping 0.43 YAC.

Favors Under

A running game script is implied by the Chiefs being a 6-point favorite in this week's game.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 52.9% of their plays: the 7th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Given the game dynamics and traits of each team, the projections expect this game (with an average of 26.10 seconds per play) will boast the 4th-fastest tempo on the slate this week.
In this game, Patrick Mahomes is expected by our trusted projection set to total the 9th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 31.5.