Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 14, 2026 8:17 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 224.5 (-102/-102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 249.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 224.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.8 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the NFL.
When it comes to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs grades out as the 8th-best in football last year.
Patrick Mahomes ranks as one of the leading QBs in the league last year, averaging an excellent 263.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.
Last year, the shaky Denver Broncos defense has surrendered the most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing squads: a colossal 0.00 YAC.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being called for in this game) usually mean lessened passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and increased rush volume.
The predictive model expects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 35.4 passes this week, on balance: the 8th-most among all QBs.
Last year, the daunting Broncos defense has conceded a meager 67.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 7th-smallest rate in the NFL.
The Denver Broncos cornerbacks project as the 10th-best group of CBs in football last year in defending pass-catchers.