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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 244.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 223.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 244.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The 2nd-most plays in the league have been run by the Chiefs this year (a colossal 61.4 per game on average).

The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may slide.

The model projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 38.1 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 6th-most among all QBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.

This year, the formidable Texans defense has surrendered a meager 62.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the best rate in the league.

The Texans pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, giving up 6.97 adjusted yards-per-target: the 2nd-fewest in football.

The Texans cornerbacks project as the 3rd-best unit in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

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