Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Yards

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 254.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 247.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 254.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
In this game, Patrick Mahomes is expected by the predictive model to total the 2nd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 38.6.
With an exceptional 67.2% Adjusted Completion% (76th percentile) this year, Patrick Mahomes places as one of the best precision passers in football.
This year, the weak Patriots defense has allowed a colossal 71.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 10th-biggest rate in the league.
The New England cornerbacks project as the 9th-worst unit in the league this year in defending receivers.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.
Patrick Mahomes has thrown for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (278.0) this season than he did last season (325.0).
Patrick Mahomes's throwing efficiency has diminished this season, totaling a mere 7.41 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.54 mark last season.
This year, the tough New England Patriots defense has given up the 5th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing squads: a meager 4.3 YAC.

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