Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 249.5 (-143/+112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 258.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 249.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Chiefs to be the 5th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to throw 38.5 passes this week, on average: the 3rd-most among all quarterbacks.
Patrick Mahomes checks in as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL this year with a stellar 68.6% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 77th percentile.

Favors Under

This game's spread suggests a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points.
At the present time, the 10th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.
Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Packers, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 34.4 per game) this year.
Patrick Mahomes's 277.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season represents an impressive reduction in his throwing talent over last season's 325.0 mark.
Patrick Mahomes's pass-game effectiveness has worsened this season, totaling just 7.42 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.54 figure last season.

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