Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 284.5 (-150/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 282.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 284.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 37.2 passes in this week's game, on average: the 8th-most of all quarterbacks.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 6th-most in football.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Patrick Mahomes has thrown for quite a few more yards per game (334.0) this year than he did last year (255.0).

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.80 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the NFL.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best collection of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to pass rush.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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