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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 269.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 264.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 269.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 65.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 5th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 60.2 plays per game.

The Kansas City Chiefs have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should mean higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved pass game effectiveness when facing better conditions in this game.

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 10th-lowest rate in the NFL against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season (68.9%).

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has exhibited good efficiency since the start of last season, giving up 6.71 yards-per-target: the 2nd-least in the NFL.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on just 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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