Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Yards

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 273.5 (-105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 270.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 273.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 59.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 41.4 passes in this game, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.
Patrick Mahomes has been among the top QBs in the league this year, averaging a terrific 337.0 yards per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 2nd-least yards in the league (just 204.0 per game) versus the Denver Broncos defense this year.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 10th-lowest rate in the NFL versus the Denver Broncos defense this year (68.7%).
The Denver Broncos pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, giving up 6.51 yards-per-target: the least in football.
The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

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