Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Passing Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 285.5 (+100/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 308.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 285.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 64.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 65.5 plays per game.
The Kansas City Chiefs have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense effectiveness when facing better conditions in this week's game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in football.
Opposing teams have passed for the 6th-least yards in the league (just 208.0 per game) versus the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has shown good efficiency since the start of last season, conceding 7.18 yards-per-target: the 5th-least in the NFL.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.24 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in football.