Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 1

reorder

We’re hiring: Junior AI Product & Automation Engineer — Freelance → Learn More

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Pass Attempts

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 14, 2026 8:07 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-106/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -131 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.8 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being called for in this game) usually mean lessened passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and increased rush volume.
The predictive model expects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 35.4 passes this week, on balance: the 8th-most among all QBs.