Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Pass Attempts

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 13, 2024

Updated Nov 30, 2024 2:36 AM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 66.1% pass rate.
The Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 60.4 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
In averaging a massive 36.8 pass attempts per game this year, Patrick Mahomes rates among the top QBs in football (95th percentile) by this measure.

Favors Under

With a 13.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are a massive favorite in this week's contest, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard approach.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 125.6 total plays run: the 2nd-fewest among all games this week.

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