Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Pass Attempts

Kansas City Chiefs vs Chicago Bears · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs offense as the 8th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 37.4 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-most of all QBs.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 12.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.7 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the league.

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