Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Pass Attempts

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 8, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 37.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 39.1 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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