Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Pass Attempts

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-123/-107).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 36.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 37.2 passes in this week's game, on average: the 8th-most of all quarterbacks.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 6th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box against opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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