Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 22

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Pass Attempts

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 22, 2022

Updated Feb 13, 2023 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-102/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 37.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 70.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Patrick Mahomes has attempted 40.2 passes per game this year, checking in at the 92nd percentile among quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: least in the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone for it on 4th down a mere 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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