Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Pass Attempts

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 21, 2023 9:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 38.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 41.7 passes in this game, on average: the most of all QBs.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a giant 8.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

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