Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Pass Attempts

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (+100/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 36.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 36.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 8th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 69.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 41.6 passes in this contest, on average: the most of all QBs.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 12.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on just 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
The Kansas City Chiefs have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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