Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Pass Attempts

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (+125/-162).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 36.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 36.5 @ -162.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 72.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 40.1 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 4th-most of all QBs.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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