Patrick Mahomes Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Interceptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 14, 2026 8:17 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-108/-112).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.8 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense last year: 6th-most in the NFL.
When it comes to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs grades out as the 8th-best in football last year.
In throwing a whopping 0.80 interceptions per game last year, Patrick Mahomes ranks among the weakest quarterbacks in football (18th percentile).

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being called for in this game) usually mean lessened passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and increased rush volume.
The predictive model expects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 35.4 passes this week, on balance: the 8th-most among all QBs.
The Denver Broncos cornerbacks project as the 10th-best group of CBs in football last year in defending pass-catchers.

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