Patrick Mahomes Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Interceptions

New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+120/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Chiefs as the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 38.1 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a big 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs to run the 11th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, New York's CB corps has been outstanding since the start of last season, grading out as the best in the NFL.

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