Patrick Mahomes Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Interceptions

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -103 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
In this game, Patrick Mahomes is expected by the predictive model to total the 2nd-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 38.6.
In racking up a massive 0.89 interceptions per game this year, Patrick Mahomes slots in among the bottom quarterbacks in football (16th percentile).
The Patriots have intercepted 0.56 passes per game this year, grading out as the 6th-worst defense in the league by this standard
The New England cornerbacks project as the 9th-worst unit in the league this year in defending receivers.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.

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