Patrick Mahomes Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Interceptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 3:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+125/-155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 5th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
In this week's contest, Patrick Mahomes is predicted by the projection model to have the 3rd-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 39.0.
In tallying a colossal 0.98 interceptions per game this year, Patrick Mahomes slots in among the weakest quarterbacks in football (18th percentile).
The Raiders safeties project as the 4th-worst safety corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The Las Vegas Raiders have intercepted 0.96 passes per game this year, grading out as the 10th-best defense in the NFL by this metric.

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