Patrick Mahomes Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Interceptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 42.4 passes in this week's game, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Patrick Mahomes has averaged just 0.42 interceptions per game this year, ranking in the 79th percentile among QBs.
The Buffalo Bills have intercepted 1.37 targets per game this year, ranking as the 4th-best defense in the league by this stat.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the best group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

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