Patrick Mahomes Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 22

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Interceptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 22, 2022

Updated Feb 12, 2023 5:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-130/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 70.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Patrick Mahomes has attempted 40.2 passes per game this year, checking in at the 92nd percentile among quarterbacks.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line has given their quarterback 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: least in the league.
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks project as the 2nd-best CB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.