Patrick Mahomes Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Completions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 2, 2024

Updated Sep 15, 2024 8:11 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-130/-100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chiefs to pass on 62.0% of their downs: the 4th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
In this game, Patrick Mahomes is expected by the predictive model to have the 8th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 36.7.
In regards to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Chiefs ranks as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season.
With a stellar 67.7% Adjusted Completion% (84th percentile) since the start of last season, Patrick Mahomes rates among the best precision passers in football.
Since the start of last season, the feeble Cincinnati Bengals defense has surrendered a massive 71.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 7th-biggest rate in the league.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 4-point favorite in this game.
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chiefs are expected by the projection model to call only 62.6 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks profile as the 7th-best group of CBs in football since the start of last season in defending receivers.

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