Patrick Mahomes Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Completions

Minnesota Vikings vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 2:31 AM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 65.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The predictive model expects Patrick Mahomes to throw 42.3 passes in this contest, on average: the 2nd-most out of all QBs.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest clip in the NFL versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year (80.3% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on running than their usual approach.
Patrick Mahomes's throwing accuracy has diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 67.7% to 62.6%.
The Vikings safeties profile as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

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