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Patrick Mahomes
NFL · Player Props
Patrick Mahomes
QB · Kansas City Chiefs
Completions
Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions · Week 1, 2023 Updated Sep 7, 2023 11:26 PM UTC
NFL Props Patrick Mahomes Completions

Patrick Mahomes Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -125.

Favors Over
  • THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 39.1 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all QBs.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Favors Under
  • The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
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