Patrick Mahomes Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 2:33 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-123/+117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +103 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this week's game.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 59.1 plays per game.
In registering a monstrous 3.9 rush attempts per game since the start of last season, Patrick Mahomes ranks among the top quarterbacks in football (83rd percentile) when talking about running workload.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 3rd-least run-focused team in football (35.8% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Kansas City Chiefs.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to have only 121.5 plays on offense run: the 2nd-lowest number out of all the games this week.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Patrick Mahomes has been a much smaller piece of his offense's running game this year (11.1% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (17.1%).
The Dolphins linebackers profile as the 9th-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.