Patrick Mahomes Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 8:12 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-146/+114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +122 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A running game script is implied by the Chiefs being a 6-point favorite in this week's game.
The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 7th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 47.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
In tallying a monstrous 4.0 rush attempts per game since the start of last season, Patrick Mahomes places among the top quarterbacks in the NFL (83rd percentile) as it relates to running volume.
The Indianapolis Colts safeties grade out as the 30th-worst group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

Given the game dynamics and traits of each team, the projections expect this game (with an average of 26.10 seconds per play) will boast the 4th-fastest tempo on the slate this week.