Patrick Mahomes Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 14, 2026 8:12 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+113/-117).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 3rd-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 39.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.8 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being called for in this game) usually mean lessened passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and increased rush volume.
Patrick Mahomes isn't afraid to run the ball himself, comprising 17.1% of his offense's run game usage last year, placing him in the 78th percentile among quarterbacks.

Favors Under

This week, Patrick Mahomes is forecasted by the predictive model to garner the fewest carries among all quarterbacks with 4.2.
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Denver's collection of DTs has been fantastic last year, profiling as the 10th-best in football.

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