Patrick Mahomes Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Kansas City Chiefs vs New Orleans Saints · Week 5, 2024

Updated Oct 7, 2024 11:01 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -103 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread implies an extreme rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are a heavy favorite by 8 points.
The projections expect Patrick Mahomes to be a more important option in his team's running game in this week's contest (15.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (9.6% in games he has played).
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, New Orleans's collection of DTs has been very bad this year, profiling as the worst in the league. in the league.

Favors Under

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 41.9% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to have the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Chiefs this year (a mere 54.0 per game on average).
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.