Patrick Mahomes Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2024

Updated Dec 16, 2024 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-114/-114).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A rushing game script is implied by the Chiefs being a 4.5-point favorite this week.
The model projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 148.3 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Chiefs have called the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being called for in this game) usually lead to worse passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.

Favors Under

Right now, the 2nd-least run-oriented offense in football (33.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.
After accounting for 15.6% of his offense's rush attempts last season, Patrick Mahomes has been called on less the running game this season, now taking on only 9.5%.
The Browns linebackers grade out as the best LB corps in football this year in regard to defending the run.

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