Patrick Mahomes Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 10

reorder

We’re hiring: Junior AI Product & Automation Engineer — Freelance → Learn More

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2024

Updated Nov 10, 2024 3:36 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-165/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a heavy 7.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Kansas City Chiefs are expected by the model to call 66.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
The 4th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Chiefs this year (a whopping 61.0 per game on average).
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Denver's DE corps has been awful this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in football. in football.

Favors Under

Right now, the least run-heavy offense in the NFL (35.4% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Kansas City Chiefs.
Patrick Mahomes has been a less important option in his team's rushing attack this year (8.9% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (15.6%).