Patrick Mahomes Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-129/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chiefs are a big 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast Patrick Mahomes to garner 4.2 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the 9th-most of all QBs.
Patrick Mahomes has been a much bigger part of his team's run game this year (22.0% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (13.6%).
The Chiefs O-line ranks as the best in football since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the 8th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 37.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs to run the 11th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Jets defensive ends project as the 7th-best collection of DEs in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

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