Patrick Mahomes Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +122 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread suggests a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points.
The model projects Patrick Mahomes to earn 4.1 carries in this contest, on balance: the 7th-most among all quarterbacks.
Patrick Mahomes isn't afraid to take off running, taking on 15.6% of his team's run game usage this year, putting him in the 82nd percentile among QBs.
When talking about opening holes for runners (and the ramifications it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Kansas City Chiefs profiles as the best in football last year.
As it relates to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Green Bay's collection of DEs has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 7th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chiefs to run on 38.0% of their plays: the 5th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
At the present time, the 10th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.

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