Patrick Mahomes Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 21, 2023 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-108/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +122 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Making up 15.0% of his offense's run game usage this year (81st percentile among quarterbacks), Patrick Mahomes's mobility makes him a significant weapon in the run game.
The Chiefs O-line profiles as the best in the league last year at run-game blocking.

Favors Under

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 36.4% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
In this game, Patrick Mahomes is anticipated by our trusted projection set to accrue the fewest rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 4.0.
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackles rank as the 7th-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

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