Patrick Mahomes Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 22

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Patrick Mahomes

NFL · Player Props

Patrick Mahomes

QB · Kansas City Chiefs

Carries

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 22, 2022

Updated Feb 12, 2023 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Mahomes Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-194/+139).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +114 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -194.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 34.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to earn 4.2 rush attempts this week, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive ends profile as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone for it on 4th down a mere 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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