Pat Freiermuth Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Touchdowns

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 9, 2026 12:27 PM EST

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+300/-344).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Steelers to pass on 60.1% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast the Steelers to be the most pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.2% red zone pass rate.
The model projects the Steelers offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.48 seconds per snap.
With a sizeable 15.8% Red Zone Target Rate (81st percentile) this year, Pat Freiermuth rates as one of the TEs with the highest volume near the goal line in the league.
After accumulating 20.0 air yards per game last year, Pat Freiermuth has shown good development this year, currently pacing 42.0 per game.

Favors Under

This year, the deficient Colts run defense has given up a monstrous 1.25 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing teams: the 8th-largest rate in football.

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