Pat Freiermuth Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Touchdowns

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 8:07 PM EST

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+376/-400).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.4% red zone pass rate.
Pat Freiermuth has accrued a whopping 24.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 78th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Pat Freiermuth's 30.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 23.3.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks as the best in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Steelers are anticipated by the predictive model to call just 62.7 total plays in this contest: the 11th-fewest on the slate this week.
The 6th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Steelers since the start of last season (a lowly 54.6 per game on average).
Opposing QBs have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 8th-fewest in the NFL.
While Pat Freiermuth has received 22.2% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a much smaller piece of Pittsburgh's pass game near the goal line in this week's contest at 15.7%.
Since the start of last season, the daunting Browns defense has yielded a feeble 0.25 passing TDs per game to opposing tight ends: the 2nd-best rate in football.