Pat Freiermuth Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Touchdowns

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 2:33 PM EST

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+372/-458).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -458.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is indicated by the Steelers being a -3-point underdog in this game.
The model projects the Steelers to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 60.7% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the most pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (64.5% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Steelers.
Our trusted projections expect the Steelers offense to be the 2nd-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.27 seconds per snap.
The projections expect Pat Freiermuth to be a much bigger part of his team's pass game near the end zone in this week's game (17.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (12.5% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have run for the 9th-most TDs in the league (1.05 per game) versus the Bengals defense since the start of last season.