Pat Freiermuth Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Touchdowns

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 7:33 PM EST

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+490/-562).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is suggested by the Steelers being a -4.5-point underdog in this game.
The predictive model expects the Steelers as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the most pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.1% red zone pass rate.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Steelers are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run just 63.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest on the slate this week.
The projections expect Pat Freiermuth to be a more important option in his offense's air attack near the goal line in this game (18.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (12.6% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The 6th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Steelers since the start of last season (a measly 54.2 per game on average).
As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, New England's collection of DTs has been awful since the start of last season, profiling as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

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