Pat Freiermuth Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Touchdowns

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 3:37 PM EST

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+396/-490).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (62.2% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Steelers.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are projected by the model to run 64.8 total plays in this game: the 7th-most on the slate this week.
Pat Freiermuth has received a colossal 10.8% of his team's air yards last year: 83rd percentile when it comes to tight ends.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in football last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

This game's line implies a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The 6th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Steelers last year (a lowly 53.9 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Falcons defense last year: 10th-fewest in football.
Last year, the strong Atlanta Falcons defense has allowed a measly 70.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 5th-lowest rate in the league.
The Falcons defense has yielded the fewest touchdowns through the air in football to TEs: 0.18 per game last year.

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