Pat Freiermuth Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 9, 2026 1:57 PM EST

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+138/-163).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -178 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -163.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Steelers to pass on 60.1% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip among all teams this week.
The model projects the Steelers offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.48 seconds per snap.
Pat Freiermuth has gone out for fewer passes this year (70.4% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (55.7%).
In this contest, Pat Freiermuth is anticipated by the projection model to rank in the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.0 targets.
When talking about pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year.

Favors Under