Pat Freiermuth Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 8:17 PM EST

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+150/-153).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -153.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.0% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Pat Freiermuth's 30.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 23.3.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks as the best in football since the start of last season.
As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Cleveland's safety corps has been atrocious since the start of last season, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the league.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Steelers are anticipated by the predictive model to call just 62.7 total plays in this contest: the 11th-fewest on the slate this week.
The 6th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Steelers since the start of last season (a lowly 54.6 per game on average).
Opposing QBs have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 8th-fewest in the NFL.