Pat Freiermuth Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 2:33 PM EST

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-142/+126).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -154 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is indicated by the Steelers being a -3-point underdog in this game.
The model projects the Steelers to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 60.7% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Steelers offense to be the 2nd-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.27 seconds per snap.
Our trusted projections expect Pat Freiermuth to total 5.1 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among tight ends.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The Bengals defensive ends grade out as the 7th-best group of DEs in football since the start of last season in regard to pass rush.