Pat Freiermuth Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 3:37 PM EST

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 6th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (62.3% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are projected by the model to run 64.8 total plays in this game: the 7th-most on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast Pat Freiermuth to total 4.1 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 76th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in football last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

This game's line implies a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The 6th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Steelers last year (a lowly 53.9 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Falcons defense last year: 10th-fewest in football.
Last year, the strong Atlanta Falcons defense has allowed a measly 70.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 5th-lowest rate in the league.
When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Atlanta's safety corps has been outstanding last year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the league.