Pat Freiermuth Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Los Angeles Rams vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 20, 2023 4:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are forecasted by the model to call 65.8 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most on the slate this week.
Our trusted projections expect Pat Freiermuth to accrue 5.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's group of LBs has been lousy this year, profiling as the worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The 7th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Steelers this year (only 54.6 per game on average).
Pat Freiermuth's 22.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 41.2.
The Steelers O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Pat Freiermuth's 2.0 adjusted receptions per game this season reflects a a significant diminishment in his receiving proficiency over last season's 4.3 mark.
Pat Freiermuth's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 67.8% to 62.1%.

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