Pat Freiermuth Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers rank as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 64.6% pass rate.
The model projects the Steelers to call the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 10th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a massive 60.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The model projects Pat Freiermuth to accrue 5.8 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile when it comes to TEs.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in the NFL.
Pat Freiermuth's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 67.8% to 58.7%.

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