Pat Freiermuth Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Pat Freiermuth

NFL · Player Props

Pat Freiermuth

TE · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 8, 2023 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+120/-156).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +141 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects Pat Freiermuth to notch 5.0 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Pat Freiermuth's 76.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this year marks a material growth in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 67.8% rate.
The New England Patriots safeties project as the 10th-worst group of safeties in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 5.5 points.
Our trusted projections expect the Steelers as the 5th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 52.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are forecasted by the projections to call only 63.6 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week.
The 6th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a measly 55.5 per game on average).
Pat Freiermuth's 30.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 41.2.

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